The Night Hope Returned. Understanding What is Happening in Venezuela

My dearest incurable humanist,

At 1:19 AM on Saturday, January 3rd, 2026 my mom’s text woke me from half-sleep - “Están bombardeando en Caracas” (They’re bombing Caracas).

I immediately woke my husband, and we called my mother-in-law, who was listening to the bombs in disbelief. On January 3rd, Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores were captured in Caracas.

That night, Venezuelans around the world, regardless of time zone, stayed glued to their phones, calling family and friends. For the first time in 26 years of this regime, we stayed awake with hope rather than fear.

Understanding the Context

A few weeks ago, I wrote a deep dive on Venezuela’s past two decades, which I invite you to read for more context if you haven’t already. Today, I want to focus on what is happening right now and address the concerns non-Venezuelan friends have raised.

People have reached out worried, stating that we shouldn’t be celebrating these events. I understand where you’re coming from. You may have strong feelings about Trump, and many of us are not blind supporters. But this situation requires looking beyond left-right political divisions and applying critical thinking. This operation was executed with precision. Venezuelans are overjoyed because Nicolás Maduro is a dictator, not the legitimate president of Venezuela. He is responsible for genocide and leads a narco-trafficking operation.

If Maduro is not the president, then, who is?

On July 28th, 2024, Edmundo González Urrutia won the presidential election after María Corina Machado (MCM) was barred from running. He is the legitimate president, and MCM—who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for her tireless fight for democracy in Venezuela—remains the leader of the opposition. Countries around the world, including the EU and US, recognized Edmundo’s victory.

After Trump’s press conference on Saturday, there was stress and uncertainty about his statements regarding Machado and Delcy Rodriguez. However, Marco Rubio has since clarified his support for her, acknowledging that a transition government is necessary since most opposition leaders are currently outside the country. International support extends beyond the United States. French President Emmanuel Macron posted on X:

“Just spoke with @MariaCorinaYA. I fully support her call for the liberation and the protection of the political prisoners of Nicolás Maduro’s regime. Like all Venezuelans, she can count on France’s support to raise her voice in favor of a peaceful, democratic transition that fully respects the sovereign will of the Venezuelan people.”

Who is Delcy Rodríguez?

Delcy Rodríguez has been involved in countless corruption scandals. Despite The New York Times attempting to portray her as a “moderate” last month, she is not. She simply wants to remain in power and continue enriching herself. She has spent years trying to whitewash the regime abroad denying that her government traffics drugs, tortures and kills opposition members, and rigs elections.

After Trump initially indicated she would lead the transition, Rodríguez made a statement contradicting this and demanding Maduro’s release. Trump then increased pressure, and her tone slightly shifted late on Sunday.

Nevertheless, she was “sworn in” on Monday, but let’s not be fooled. Unless she releases ALL political prisoners (which she is not doing) she is not truly collaborating with any transition. The repression continues.

So far, as of January 5th, reports indicate that more than 30 people were detained and over 14 journalists were kidnapped.

Key Regime Figures Still in Power

Let’s not forget about the other key regime figures still in the country:

Jorge Rodríguez (Delcy’s brother), now president of the National Assembly, is a psychiatrist who has played a prominent role in the regime since Chávez. He has rigged elections, led negotiations to maintain power, and stolen billions from aid programs.

Vladimir Padrino López, the defense minister, has been accused by UN investigators and human rights groups of responsibility for systematic abuses that amount to crimes against humanity. He has a $10 million bounty on his head.

Diosdado Cabello faces charges of long-running cocaine trafficking and narco-terrorism as part of the so-called Cartel de los Soles, including narco-terrorism, cocaine importation, and weapons offenses alongside Maduro. He has a $25 million bounty on his head.

Addressing Common Concerns

“But they’ll take your oil!”

Yes, we know nothing is free. We understand that Trump may not care deeply about the Venezuelan people, but our interests have aligned, and we accept it.

The reality is that we effectively have no functional oil industry. The collapse of Venezuela’s oil production is directly linked to Hugo Chávez’s political intervention in PDVSA beginning with the 2002-2003 strike. Chávez asserted tight state and partisan control over the formerly technocratic oil company, leading to mass firings and long-term damage to capacity, governance, and investment.

Venezuela has used discounted oil exports with Iran, Cuba, Russia, and especially China. Meanwhile, Venezuela has experienced prolonged periods with little or no gasoline domestically, forcing people to queue for hours or days to fill their tanks.

Please don’t explain our own situation to us. I’m not diminishing concerns about what’s happening—this is very serious—but Venezuelans have been raising awareness about human rights violations for years, and now finally something is happening.

“This is a foreign invasion!”

Venezuela has already been invaded by Cuba. This is proven by the fact that the men who died in the operation while serving as Maduro’s security were Cuban, not Venezuelan.

“What about other US interventions?”

There was no opposition figure in Iraq or Libya who combined María Corina Machado’s popular mandate, unified opposition backing, and internationally recognized democratic strategy at the moment of intervention.

In Iraq, there were exiled opposition groups like Ahmed Chalabi, but none had deep, countrywide legitimacy comparable to Machado’s position as a unifying electoral leader with a clear democratic transition plan.

In Libya, the anti-Gaddafi forces were a loose coalition of regional militias and political currents. There was no single, widely trusted civilian opposition leader with a long record of electoral work like Machado.

As for Panama and the 1989 U.S. capture of Manuel Noriega. Panama today is a stable electoral democracy with competitive multiparty elections, regular alternation of power, and civil liberties.

I’m not justifying anything, but each case and each country is very different.

“Why are Venezuelans abroad celebrating but not in Venezuela?”

The regime has threatened to arrest anyone celebrating or involved in these events. That’s why you see celebrations in cities with large Venezuelan diaspora communities, but quiet inside Venezuela. Remember 8 million Venezuelans have left the country since 2014, forming one of the world's largest displacement crises.

The Legal Case

Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores made their initial appearance in Manhattan federal court on Monday before Judge Alvin Hellerstein. Maduro faces charges of narco-terrorism, cocaine-importation, and weapons offenses related to alleged partnerships with drug cartels including Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel, Venezuelan El Cartel de los Soles and the gang Tren de Aragua.

During the hearing, Maduro claimed he is a “decent” man who was “kidnapped” and maintains his innocence. His lawyer is not seeking bail but is attempting to argue the detention was illegal, claiming Maduro and Cilia have diplomatic immunity. Their next court date is set for March 17th.

The irony of Maduro calling himself “decent” and “innocent” is staggering. This is a man who has accumulated 18,000 political prisoners since 2014, with 10,000 tortured. The UN Fact-Finding Mission confirmed that the regime’s repression bodies operate under direct orders from Maduro, Cabello, Padrino Lopez and others. Of the 1,000 political prisoners at year’s end, 86 were missing and 26 died in state custody during torture or from lack of medical attention.

Beyond human rights abuses, Maduro runs a transnational corruption network. 172 grand corruption cases totaling over $72 billion are being processed in 30 countries’ justice systems, with Petróleos de Venezuela at the center of 90% of these cases. Illicit economies in gold, drugs, extortion, and human trafficking reached $15 billion in 2024. Of reported gold production, only 20% enters the national treasury while the rest goes to private accounts of regime allies.

This is why there’s no money to improve lives inside Venezuela, and why the national debt exceeds $167 billion, with China alone owed over $15 billion. Venezuelans received no benefits under Maduro but will inherit all his debts and a country in ruins.

What Happens Next

This is a huge milestone. Venezuela has been kidnapped by this tyranny and is not free yet, but it will be soon. I’m not asking you to change your political views or to blindly support any particular politician. But if you haven’t lived under this regime, at least listen to those of us who have.

Please help us Venezuelans raise awareness of what is truly happening and don’t fall for false propaganda.

The situation is evolving by the minute, but for the first time, we have real hope for democracy.

Until next week.

(Read by the author. Theme song, The Incurable Humanist, by Carlos Escalona Cruz. All Rights Reserved 2025.)